The excess and surplus (E&S) lines market continues to grow and play an important role in the property and casualty insurance world. Experts say the sector has expanded significantly in recent years and shows no signs of slowing down.
John Jennings, CEO of Jencap Group and a long-time industry figure, reflected on how much the E&S business has changed over the past 40 years. He described it as an agile part of the insurance system that has grown impressively, filling gaps that traditional insurance couldn’t cover.
Matt Lynch, president of binding at Risk Placement Services Inc. (RPS), noted that fifteen years ago, E&S lines made up about 10% of the insurance market. Today, that share has doubled to between 20% and 25%. According to a report by AM Best, E&S lines accounted for just 3.6% of total property/casualty premiums in 2000, but now represent 12.3% in 2024. When looking only at commercial property/casualty lines, the market share climbs to nearly 26%.
The reason for this growth? The world is facing more and more risks. Neil Kessler, CEO at CRC, pointed out that as the risks get more complex and the choices in the admitted insurance market shrink, E&S specialists are increasingly in demand to cover those harder-to-place risks.
Demand for specialty coverage remains high despite some areas of insurance seeing more competition and capacity. Sam Baig, president of Amwins Brokerage, said that even when markets get more competitive, submission activity in E&S stays strong. Others in the industry have noticed the same trend and expect it to continue into 2026.
Tim Turner, CEO of Ryan Specialty, reported double-digit premium increases and expects the company to write more than $30 billion in premium by the end of 2025. He also believes the surplus lines market will keep growing and steal more business from the admitted market.
Paul G. Smith from H.W. Kaufman Group/Burns & Wilcox emphasized that the non-admitted market is now essential. It provides the right prices and policy terms that are often tough to find elsewhere, especially as new and specialized risks emerge.
Looking ahead, there are some challenges and chances in the market. Lynch said that while property insurance rates have dropped in some places, other areas, like habitational property, still face difficulties and rising rates. Turner highlighted sectors such as social and human services—including hospitals and nursing homes—that are struggling to find coverage.
Municipalities and public sector risks are also moving more into E&S as those areas tighten in admitted markets. Tough casualty risks, including those related to fleets and hospitality, are under pressure with rising prices and smaller coverage limits, especially in California.
Cyber liability and professional liability remain competitive and soft for now, but Baig predicts rates, especially in directors and officers (D&O) and cyber insurance, may soon stop falling and start to stabilize or increase.
Ryan Specialty’s Turner expects property insurance rates, now at a low point, could change direction due to events like natural disasters. He noted that climate change continues to push up property losses. Casualty insurance, on the other hand, is likely to stay firm, with rising prices needed to cover increasing claim frequency and severity.
One major concern for casualty insurers is the rise in “nuclear verdicts,” jury awards exceeding $10 million, which jumped by 52% in 2024. Even larger awards, known as thermonuclear verdicts (over $100 million), saw an 81.5% increase between 2023 and 2024. Turner described these verdicts as a big challenge, making it hard to keep prices fair.
In short, the surplus lines market is growing and adapting to meet tough risks traditional insurers won’t cover. While property insurance may face ups and downs, specialty and casualty lines look set for steady or stronger pricing in the near future.