Researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) have made an early prediction for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, forecasting it to be above average. Their initial report, released on April 3, outlines expectations for 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes, which are classified as Category 3 or higher, with winds of at least 111 mph. This is notably higher than the typical season, which averages 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
The CSU team, now in their 42nd year of providing hurricane forecasts, cites warmer sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean as the main reason for their prediction. These warm waters serve as fuel for hurricanes and create conditions that are conducive to their formation. The team also noted that the absence of wind shear, which can disrupt storms, further supports the likelihood of increased hurricane activity.
Looking back at the previous year, the 2024 hurricane season was record-breaking, featuring 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. Among these, Hurricane Beryl made history as the earliest Category 5 hurricane recorded in the Atlantic, striking late in June.
For 2025, CSU estimates a 51% chance that a major hurricane will impact the U.S., which is higher than the average probability of 43%. Specifically, they project a 33% chance for a hurricane to make landfall on the Gulf Coast and a 26% chance for the East Coast.
Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at CSU, drew parallels between current conditions and those from several active hurricane years, including 1996, 1999, and 2017. In those years, while the number of named storms was around the average, the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes was notably higher.
CSU plans to update its forecast throughout the season, with new predictions scheduled for June 11, July 9, and August 6. As the hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, these updates will provide more clarity on what to expect as the season approaches.