Human-caused climate change played a significant role in the severe storms that hit parts of the central United States in early April. A recent study by the World Weather Attribution group revealed that these storms, which swept through Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee, were made more intense and more likely due to climate change.
From April 3 to 6, a series of storms unleashed tornadoes, strong winds, and heavy rainfall, resulting in at least 24 deaths. Many of these fatalities were linked to devastating floods that inundated homes, roads, and vehicles. The analysis found that the intensity of the rainfall during this event was 9% greater than it would have been without climate change, and the likelihood of such storms occurring has increased by 40% compared to the pre-industrial era.
The storms drew moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, where temperatures were unusually warm—about 1.2°C (2.2°F) higher than pre-industrial levels. This warming was found to be 14 times more likely due to climate change. The researchers emphasized that the frequency of such extreme rainfall events could shift from once every century to once every few decades if current trends in fossil fuel use continue.
Ben Clarke, the study’s lead author, pointed out that as the atmosphere warms, it holds more moisture, leading to heavier and more persistent rainfall. This means that without significant cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, the risks of severe weather will continue to rise.
The National Weather Service provided advance warnings about the heavy rains, which likely helped reduce casualties. However, budget cuts from the Trump administration have left many of its offices understaffed, raising concerns about public safety during future weather events. Randall Cerveny, a climate professor at Arizona State University, warned that continued cuts could lead to more deaths due to inadequate warning systems.
As climate change continues to impact weather patterns, experts stress the importance of addressing greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate future risks. The recent events serve as a stark reminder of the urgent need for action to protect communities from the growing threat of extreme weather.