Bernard Weisse, a retired salesman living just outside Paris, has watched his home fall apart over the last four years. It all started with a small crack in the wall, which he initially thought was no big deal. Now, cracks have spread throughout his two-story house, causing loud noises and deepening his worries. “Sometimes, I think we should get all our stuff together and leave,” he said.
Weisse’s situation is not unique. Many people around the world are facing subsidence, a serious issue where the ground sinks and damages buildings. This problem is becoming more common due to climate change and has already caused billions in damages globally. Experts warn that subsidence could affect 1.2 billion people and threaten over $8 trillion in economic output.
The main cause of subsidence is the changing moisture levels in the soil. When it rains, the soil swells, and when it dries, it shrinks, which can lead to cracks in foundations. In Europe, where the soil is clay-rich and the climate is warming rapidly, the risks are especially high. The European Central Bank estimates that the potential damage from subsidence in the euro area could reach €2.5 trillion ($2.9 trillion).
For Weisse, repairing his home could cost up to €200,000. This is part of a larger issue in France, where households may face €43 billion in damages due to subsidence by 2050, according to the insurance group France Assureurs. The financial stakes have led to disputes over who will pay for the repairs.
In Presles-en-Brie, where Weisse lives, the local government has joined forces with 14 nearby villages to sue the state. They want their subsidence issues recognized as a natural disaster, similar to floods and wildfires. This recognition would allow homeowners to receive compensation from insurance companies and the government. “It’s David against Goliath,” said Dominique Rodriguez, the town’s mayor, who has served for over 30 years.
Despite the legal efforts, many homeowners in Presles-en-Brie have had their claims rejected. Since 2020, at least 40 residents have sought compensation, but only a few have succeeded. The clay-rich soil in Europe, combined with older buildings from the post-war construction boom, makes many homes particularly vulnerable.
The problem of subsidence is not limited to France. In Jakarta, the ground has sunk over 2.5 meters in just a decade. In Tehran, the land drops by as much as 22 centimeters each year. In the United States, Houston faces significant subsidence, with parts of the city sinking more than half a centimeter annually. In the Netherlands, over 425,000 homes are at risk, and repair costs can exceed €100,000, often without insurance coverage.
In the UK, subsidence claims have nearly doubled in the last five years, with the average payout rising significantly. The British Geological Survey predicts that shifting ground levels will affect two-fifths of the housing stock in London over the next five years.
In France, half of all single-family homes could be impacted by subsidence by the end of the decade. The country’s insurance system, known as CatNat, compensates homeowners for damage once their municipality is recognized for natural disaster conditions. However, the system is under strain, with increasing claims leading to higher premiums and uncertainty for homeowners.
Weisse and his neighbors are feeling the pressure. Repairing their homes is urgent, but they face a long wait for legal decisions. The municipalities are even considering taking their case to the European Court of Human Rights if necessary. “We have little hope that our legal appeal will eventually succeed,” Rodriguez admitted. But for now, they are determined to fight for their homes and their future.