Forecasters are predicting another busy hurricane season for the Atlantic this year, thanks to warmer ocean waters. However, they believe it won’t be as intense as the previous year, which was marked by severe storms like Beryl, Helene, and Milton. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently shared its outlook for the hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. They estimate a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of it being near normal, and only a 10% chance of a quieter year.
The NOAA forecast suggests there will be between 13 to 19 named storms. Out of these, six to ten are expected to become hurricanes, with three to five reaching major hurricane status, meaning winds over 110 mph. For comparison, a typical season sees about 14 named storms, with seven becoming hurricanes and three turning into major hurricanes.
While ocean temperatures aren’t as extreme as last year, they are still high enough to fuel a busy season. Ken Graham, the National Weather Service Director, emphasized that conditions are favorable for an above-average season. Despite recent job cuts at NOAA, Graham reassured that the agency is well-prepared to handle the upcoming challenges.
The NOAA’s predictions align with trends observed since 1995, where 21 out of 30 hurricane seasons have been classified as above normal. In the past decade, only 2015 saw below-normal activity, while 2022 was considered near normal. The previous year, 2024, was particularly active, with 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes.
Experts attribute the intensity of storms to climate change, which has made hurricanes more powerful, wetter, and slower-moving. Kristen Corbosiero, a professor of tropical meteorology, explained that warm ocean waters are the main energy source for hurricanes. She noted that the current conditions, including ocean temperatures and the neutral state of the El Niño/La Niña cycle, suggest a busy season ahead.
Other forecasting groups have also weighed in, predicting a busy year but not as extreme as last year. Phil Klotzbach, who leads Colorado State’s hurricane forecast program, anticipates 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes, based on warm water trends and historical data.
While the forecasts indicate a busy season, experts remind us that even a single storm can have devastating effects, regardless of how many storms occur overall. Corbosiero pointed out that a quiet year can still bring significant damage, as seen with Hurricane Andrew in 1992.
As the season approaches, the NOAA and other agencies are preparing to ensure that communities are informed and ready for whatever may come.