This summer, wildfires swept through parts of Greece, Turkey, and Cyprus with a strength and frequency far beyond what was typical in the past. Scientists say climate change played a big role, making these fires about 22% more intense and ten times more likely to happen than they would have been if the climate hadn’t warmed.
Usually, weather that powerful—hot, dry, and windy—would only show up once every hundred years in this region. But because the planet is about 1.3 degrees Celsius warmer than it was before the industrial era, such extreme conditions now strike roughly every 20 years. That’s a big shift that means wildfires are becoming a more common threat.
This year’s fires have caused serious damage. Over a million hectares burned across Europe, with southern Europe’s forests taking a hard hit. At least twenty people died, and more than 80,000 had to leave their homes during the fire emergency. The Mediterranean region, which is warming faster than most places, is especially vulnerable, facing more heat waves, droughts, and strong winds that make fires worse.
Experts warn that this is not just a one-off problem. “We’re looking at bigger, more frequent fires in southern Europe,” said Bikem Ekberzade, a researcher in Istanbul. Greece, for example, has now had three straight summers with severe fire seasons that many say are unlike anything seen before.
Scientists used detailed weather data and climate models to understand just how much climate change influenced these fires. They applied special tools to measure how hard it is to put out the fires and how dry and hot conditions affect plants in the area. This was the first quick study like this done on a European wildfire.
Local governments have experience fighting fires and tried hard this summer, using firefighters, planes, and help from neighbors. Even so, the scale of the disasters was overwhelming, said Maja Vahlberg from the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre.
In Turkey, a wildfire broke out unusually early in June, catching many by surprise. Most of the fires started because of human activity, which makes prevention and prediction harder. Greece has gotten better at spotting and stopping fires before they grow too large, but there’s still room for improvement, especially in prevention strategies.
Both Ekberzade and Apostolos Voulgarakis from the Technical University of Crete agree that more strong political will is needed to prepare better for these changing fire risks. As the climate continues to warm, the risk of dangerous wildfires in this part of the world looks set to rise, unless more action is taken.