Camp Mystic, a private summer camp in Central Texas, has become a symbol of the deadly floods that swept through the region. The camp sits on land that has long been known to be at high risk of flooding, a reality that many other properties in the state share. Nearly 1.3 million homes across Texas are in areas vulnerable to dangerous floodwaters. About a quarter of Texas’s land faces some level of severe flood risk, placing an estimated 5 million residents in potential danger.
Despite these risks, local governments, especially counties, have limited power to control building in flood-prone zones. Texas has been growing rapidly, and many people seek cheaper land, often in areas more exposed to floods. While cities can set their own rules about what can be built, counties generally lack zoning authority, leaving many developments unregulated. Camp Mystic and other camps along the Guadalupe River in Kerr County, where much of the flood damage was focused, are outside city limits and beyond the reach of city regulations.
Federal flood insurance programs require minimum building standards in flood-prone areas, and some federal funds help move residents out of risky zones. But these efforts have had mixed success. Many rural counties don’t even have required hazard mitigation plans, making infrastructure improvements harder. Experts say it’s nearly impossible to keep people away from major flood zones because many want to live or vacation near water.
Texas’s population boom has added pressure. The state’s total population has grown over 7% since 2020, and parts of the Hill Country, including neighboring counties, have seen steady growth. These areas are popular for retirees and those seeking beauty and a slower pace of life. Yet, cheaper land in flood-prone areas often attracts those with fewer housing options, leading to more vulnerable homes being built, including mobile and manufactured houses that often get rebuilt in the same risky locations after disasters.
Local officials often struggle with whether to limit building in flood zones. Many hesitate because of political concerns and fears about hurting the local economy. When rules are brought in, older buildings are usually allowed to remain. Political will is a key factor in how strictly regulations are enforced.
Texas created its first statewide flood plan just last year. Some cities and counties are starting to adopt or tighten rules about floodplain development, but growth can still outpace new regulations. Experts argue that the state should give local governments better tools to manage building in these risky areas, rather than leaving the problem to cities and counties alone. State-level action could help standardize protections and prevent a “race to the bottom” where some places ignore safety to encourage building.
Studies show much of Texas has seen limited development on flood plains recently, but the Hill Country counties of Kerr, Bandera, Burnet, and Llano have more floodplain construction than others. As the population grows there, more people are at risk.
Experts agree extreme rain and flooding cannot be stopped, but decisions about where to build and live are choices communities and officials make. After previous floods in the region, developers pushed to allow more building in floodplains to keep up with housing demand. Some warn that rivers are beautiful but dangerous and must be respected through careful planning.
A mix of weak rules, outdated flood maps, and economic incentives encourage building in risky areas. Federal programs require homes to be raised above projected flood levels, but local standards vary. Texas has historically pushed back against federal environmental rules, slowing progress on responding to more intense storms caused by climate change.
More development also worsens flooding by replacing natural areas with hard surfaces that do not absorb water. Studies after past floods found that new construction removed natural barriers, making floods worse. However, in less developed Kerr County, experts doubt new buildings made this recent flood significantly worse but call for studies to understand the events better. They also recommend better forecasting methods that focus on the impact of rain for people living in vulnerable spots.
Many floodplain maps are out of date, and political concerns often stop stronger building codes. In one instance, a city removed hurricane surge warning signs due to fears they would reduce property values. This shows how often safety gets overlooked in favor of home sales.
Camp Mystic’s tragedy highlights the challenges Texas faces as it grows amid increasing flood risks. Managing development in flood-prone areas will require stronger rules, better planning, and political courage to protect lives and communities from future disasters.