On January 5, 2025, a severe hailstorm hit Chatham, Mississippi, around 2:35 PM, bringing with it quarter-size hail. While there were no reported injuries, the storm caused an estimated $10,000 in property damage, according to the federal storm events database.
However, the accuracy of this damage estimate is uncertain. Experts suggest that such figures are often rough guesses made by weather forecasters. This raises concerns about how reliable damage assessments are across different regions. If one county consistently reports lower damage estimates than another, it might mislead potential property buyers into thinking that the area is less prone to hailstorms. In reality, the differences could stem from varying estimation practices rather than actual risk levels.
Researchers from Texas A&M University, who are involved in state-level planning for weather-related disasters, have observed puzzling patterns in storm damage over the past two decades. They analyzed storm reports from a mix of urban and rural counties in southeast Texas, speaking with personnel from local National Weather Service offices. Their findings indicate that damage assessments vary widely, particularly for types of extreme weather like tornadoes and flash floods.
When a tornado strikes, the National Weather Service conducts detailed damage surveys to assess its impact and strength. This data helps generate more accurate damage estimates. Similarly, for flash floods, loss information is gathered from the National Flood Insurance Program. However, most damage from other severe weather events is covered by private insurance, making it difficult to obtain consistent loss data.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has compiled information on major disasters, including insured losses by state, which has helped track the rising costs of disasters over the years. Despite the increasing number of billion-dollar disasters attributed to climate change and growing infrastructure, NOAA recently ceased its billion-dollar disaster estimates, closing a critical resource for understanding disaster impacts.
At the local level, emergency managers often estimate damages, but their methods and resources vary significantly. Some may only make estimates if they anticipate a disaster declaration that qualifies for federal relief funds. This inconsistency means that the National Weather Service sometimes lacks reliable data to assess losses accurately.
To improve the situation, experts suggest several measures. These include developing standardized procedures for estimating damages, encouraging local emergency managers to report their assessments, and creating a team of specialists to provide consistent damage estimates. Implementing these changes could lead to more reliable information on all types of disasters, rather than just the most catastrophic events.
As communities work to prepare for future weather-related challenges, having accurate damage assessments will be crucial for understanding risks and improving resilience against natural disasters.