Josh Yoder, a farmer from Ohio, is feeling anxious as President Donald Trump intensifies his trade war with China. Yoder, who has supported Trump in past elections, is now uncertain about the outcomes of the president’s aggressive approach to trade. “The world is trying to figure out if Trump is playing chess or checkers,” he said, expressing his fears about the potential consequences for farmers like himself.
Yoder’s concerns reflect a broader anxiety among farmers in the U.S., especially in regions that heavily supported Trump. They know how crucial China is for demand, particularly for soybeans, which are a major U.S. export. Last year, the U.S. sold nearly $25 billion worth of soybeans, with about half going to China. A significant reduction in this trade could have dire effects not just on farmers but also on related industries, such as tractor manufacturers and fertilizer producers.
This week, Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports while easing restrictions on other countries. China has vowed to retaliate, increasing its own tariffs on U.S. goods and calling Trump’s actions a "joke." As a result, soybean prices have dropped significantly, falling to their lowest level since December at about $9.70 per bushel.
Farmers have faced similar challenges before. During Trump’s previous term, the trade war led to a surplus of soybeans in the U.S., causing prices to plummet. The government had to step in with a $28 billion aid package to support the agricultural sector, which helped boost net farm income to a seven-year high in 2020. Now, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has indicated that the administration might consider offering assistance again, but many farmers prefer trade solutions over aid.
Matt Bennett, a farmer from Illinois, noted that if soybean prices remain low, growers may need financial help or risk not planting soybeans at all. Yoder is particularly worried about prices dropping to $7 per bushel and plans to cut costs on his 1,600 acres of corn and soybeans. He aims to reduce expenses for fertilizers and herbicides without hurting his yields.
The agricultural sector has been under strain for several years due to rising costs and declining crop prices. The U.S. is projected to face a record agricultural trade deficit of $49 billion this year. The Ag Economy Barometer from Purdue University shows that farmers’ confidence about the future is waning, with expectations for agricultural exports at an all-time low.
As the U.S. grapples with its trade relationship with China, Brazil has emerged as a stronger competitor in the soybean market. The South American nation has been increasing its shipments to China, taking advantage of the trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Recent reports indicate that Chinese buyers are purchasing large quantities of Brazilian soybeans, further diminishing U.S. market share.
Despite these challenges, there is some good news for U.S. farmers: Mexico remains exempt from the latest tariffs, which should help maintain corn exports to that country. However, uncertainty looms large over the agricultural landscape, making it difficult for farmers to plan for the future. As Andy Riffe, a grain manager in Texas, put it, “The worst thing our farmers run into is that we can’t plan for anything.”