Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have developed a new tool to better predict wildfire risks across the United States. Based in Boulder, Colorado, NOAA’s Global Systems Laboratory spent several years creating an index that provides hourly updates on wildfire potential. This means forecasters, firefighters, and land managers can get more detailed information about when and where fires might flare up, as well as how much smoke they could produce.
The tool, called the Hourly Wildfire Potential (HWP) Index, has been in the works since 2019. What makes it stand out is its ability to use weather forecasts to predict changes in fire activity on an hour-by-hour basis. Unlike existing fire weather indices, which often work on a day-to-day scale, the HWP can zoom in on shorter periods, offering a more immediate view of fire risks.
To create the HWP, researchers studied three years of satellite data that captured heat from large wildfires across the western U.S. They then added in weather details like wind speed, humidity, and soil moisture. These factors help the index estimate how fast fires might spread, how intense they could be, and how dry fuels like plants and trees are. The soil moisture data, in particular, comes from NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) weather model, which has an advanced system for tracking land surface conditions.
Eric James, a research scientist at the lab, explained that the HWP offers a cost-effective way to forecast fire danger without running complicated fire behavior models. By working alongside the HRRR, it provides a high-resolution look at wildfire hazards in near real-time.
This new index could improve how wildfire warnings are issued and help emergency teams respond quickly. With wildfires becoming an increasing threat in many parts of the country, tools like the HWP could be a valuable resource for keeping people and property safe.
NOAA emphasizes that the HWP is the first of its kind designed to plug directly into fast-moving weather models to give detailed, timely fire risk assessments. While still considered experimental, the index shows promise for helping communities better prepare for wildfire threats as conditions shift throughout the day.