Brokerage stocks took a sharp hit this week after OpenAI unveiled a major announcement about artificial intelligence. But experts say the market reaction is less about immediate risks to revenue and more about long-term questions of who will control how insurance reaches customers.
Trevor Jones, a partner at West Monroe specializing in insurance, thinks investors may be jumping the gun. He explained that the sell-off signals a shift in the story investors are telling themselves. The focus is on who owns the relationship with the customer as AI technology starts to change how insurance is bought and sold.
Jones emphasized that the current drop in brokerage stock prices should not be seen as a sign that brokers’ businesses are struggling right now. Instead, it reflects uncertainty about the future and which players will lead insurance distribution going forward. He said brokers’ core strengths – placing policies, advising clients, and handling tricky risks – remain solid.
The bigger question lies in control of the “front door” to customers. If AI platforms with large and loyal user bases become the go-to places for insurance decisions, the current model might shift away from traditional broker firms like Aon, Marsh, or Arthur J. Gallagher, to new, AI-focused platforms such as Anthropic or OpenAI.
Jones pointed out that commercial insurance is less likely to be affected immediately because it often requires customized advice and human judgment. But he warned companies that are only thinking of AI as a way to cut costs could be missing a larger change in how the industry works. That’s part of why investors have pulled back from brokerage stocks.
This comes at a time when the brokerage industry is already going through major changes. In 2025, Gallagher completed a huge $13.45 billion deal to buy AssuredPartners. These big mergers show that companies want to grow and offer more diverse services. Jones said the uncertainty around AI might make bankers and executives take a moment to rethink plans, especially those involved in IPOs and big deals.
Rather than slowing things down, the rise of AI could actually speed up deals. Companies might rush to combine strong advisory teams with new technology platforms to stay competitive.
Looking ahead, Jones says there are two key things brokers need to watch. First, how willing buyers—both individuals and businesses—are to use AI to help buy insurance. Second, how open insurance carriers are to selling through AI-powered platforms, especially for simpler or standardized products.
He noted that carriers will probably move slowly when it comes to complex commercial risks. But some are already testing the waters with specialized or parametric insurance products sold through AI-based systems.
In short, the insurance world is facing a shift. It’s not about brokers losing their place today, but about who will hold the reins when AI changes how customers shop for and buy insurance in the future.