Trade tensions and new manufacturing investments are starting to change how goods move across North America. This shift could have a big impact on marine insurance, as more cargo may travel by rail and truck rather than by ship in the coming years.
Mike Nukk, head of marine at global specialty MGA Rokstone, shared how tariffs, political uncertainty, and industrial growth are reshaping trade among the US, Canada, and Mexico. He pointed out that if companies keep building factories closer to home, we could see fewer ocean shipments and more cross-border trucking and rail. The next few years will show if this shift sticks.
Data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development shows global trade growth has slowed, and shipping is moving toward shorter, regional routes. Over the past year, companies dealing with tariff uncertainty have rushed to ship goods early or combined cargo to avoid extra costs. While this helps in the short term, it also raises risks by piling up goods in warehouses and ports, creating insurance challenges.
Because North America has a closely connected supply chain, moving production between the US, Mexico, and Canada is relatively easy. Trade within these countries hit $1.8 trillion in 2023. At the same time, big investments in places like automotive and electronics manufacturing are boosting local production. This supports shorter, regional supply chains moving forward.
One clear sign of these changes is that Rokstone has seen more businesses buying domestic transit insurance, which protects goods as they move by truck or rail after reaching ports. “If factories are closer, cargo travels less overseas but more within North America,” Nukk explained.
The car industry is a good example. Tariffs on vehicle parts have led companies to rethink where they source and build parts. Now, more auto components and cars are moving between US, Mexican, and Canadian facilities, increasing demand for insurance that covers trucking and cross-border freight.
For marine insurers, this shift brings new risks. Traditional policies cover ocean transport and storage, but fewer shipments by sea and more by land mean different dangers. Trucks and trains face risks like accidents, theft, and traffic jams not common at sea. Ports are also feeling more pressure from congestion and longer customs processing, raising chances of delays, theft, or damage to goods.
Climate issues add to the challenge. Storms and floods can hit ports and warehouses, increasing the risk when cargo is stacked up in one place.
“There might be fewer ships, but more cargo on land,” Nukk said. “Insurers need to pay attention to risks from rail, trucking, and cross-border transport that weren’t so common before.”
As trade and manufacturing continue to change, marine insurance will have to adapt to this new way goods flow through North America.