Exporters around the world are changing their strategies as they face uncertainty in trade policies. A recent survey by Allianz Trade reveals that many businesses are feeling the pressure from shifting tariffs and currency fluctuations. The 2025 Allianz Trade Global Survey gathered insights from 4,500 companies in nine major economies, highlighting a significant drop in export optimism.
The survey was conducted shortly after the US announced new tariff changes on April 2, a day some are calling “Liberation Day.” Before these changes, 80% of exporters felt positive about their future. However, that number plummeted to just 40% afterward. Now, 45% of respondents expect their export sales to decline, mainly due to increased costs from tariffs and currency swings.
Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade, noted that businesses are adjusting to ongoing challenges in global trade. Companies are not sitting idle; they are changing partners, rethinking logistics, and sharing risks more broadly. In today’s trade environment, being flexible is vital for success.
Asian exporters, particularly in China and Singapore, are feeling the heat. The survey found that 82% of Chinese exporters and 55% of those in Singapore expect a dip in international sales. In response, many are looking for new markets to lessen their reliance on US trade policies.
US businesses are also adapting. A significant 86% reported speeding up shipments to avoid new tariffs. This trend is expected to continue as temporary tariff pauses come to an end. Instead of absorbing rising costs, over half of US companies plan to raise their export prices. Additionally, many are changing shipping routes and pushing logistical duties onto suppliers. A notable 62% of US firms are now using alternative shipping paths, benefiting from lower freight and fuel costs.
The survey also highlighted a shift in global trade patterns. US companies are scaling back their exports to China, while Chinese firms are reducing their focus on North America. Instead, many are turning to Latin America and Western Europe, a strategy some analysts call “friendshoring.”
Payment issues are another concern. Many exporters are facing longer payment terms and heightened risks of non-payment. A quarter of those surveyed expect payment cycles to extend by over a week, with 48% reporting increased non-payment risks, particularly in markets like the US, UK, and Italy. Only 11% of businesses are receiving payments within 30 days, while most are waiting between 30 and 70 days.
Looking ahead, Allianz Trade projects a 6% rise in global business insolvencies in 2025, followed by another 3% increase in 2026. This marks five consecutive years of rising insolvencies, driven by high interest rates and soft demand as pandemic support measures fade away. Sectors that require heavy investment, like renewable energy and technology, are especially vulnerable.
In Asia-Pacific, insolvency rates are also climbing. Countries like Singapore, Australia, and New Zealand saw some of the largest increases in 2024. While some relief is expected in 2025, markets like Taiwan and Hong Kong may continue to struggle. China is anticipated to face a 7% increase in insolvencies in 2025, largely due to ongoing challenges in construction and export sectors.
As businesses adapt to these changes, the landscape of international trade continues to evolve. Companies are under pressure to adjust their strategies, explore new markets, and rethink their global presence.