New research from MIT’s Project Iceberg reveals that current artificial intelligence (AI) tools could already take over tasks equivalent to nearly 12 percent of the U.S. workforce. That adds up to about $1.2 trillion in wages and the work of almost 18 million full-time jobs. While the study focuses on the U.S., it raises important questions for Canada’s economy, which shares many similarities with its southern neighbor.
Project Iceberg looked closely at 151 million American workers across more than 900 jobs. It matched the skills and daily tasks of these workers to thousands of existing AI tools. The research doesn’t predict layoffs but shows where AI can already do the work now done by humans. This means companies have the option to shift certain tasks to machines if they choose.
The impact isn’t just in tech jobs, as many assume. Although Silicon Valley’s high-profile layoffs get headlines, those represent only a small portion of AI’s potential effect—around 2.2 percent of total wages. The bigger changes will happen in everyday roles within finance, healthcare, professional services, and administrative work. In these fields, AI can handle tasks like processing information, managing data, drafting routine documents, scheduling, and more.
Canadian employers operate heavily in these same sectors. Banks, insurance companies, health-care facilities, law firms, and consulting agencies all rely on knowledge work that AI tools could take over. This means a lot of what workers do daily could be automated, even if companies have not fully embraced these tools yet.
For Canada, where about 60 percent of people are employed, the lesson is clear: AI might change many roles by automating parts of jobs, not necessarily replacing workers entirely. Some staff may find their workloads reduced as AI handles repetitive tasks, while others might see their jobs shift in focus. HR teams should prepare for smaller teams that do more or reorganizations affecting roles like junior analysts, coordinators, or contact-center agents.
The study highlights that understanding AI’s impact means looking at tasks and skills, not just job titles. Two workers with the same role might face very different risks depending on what they actually do. This means HR needs to analyze what employees spend their time on and which tasks AI can now handle.
There’s also a clear message for companies about acting quickly. The benefits of AI won’t wait for everyone to agree, and companies that hesitate may end up dealing with change through budget cuts or outsourcing rather than thoughtful adjustments. HR will play a crucial role in managing these changes, supporting employees, and setting clear policies about retraining, internal job moves, and handling layoffs fairly.
Experts suggest four steps for Canadian employers. First, map out which tasks are exposed to AI. Second, involve senior leaders early to plan how to handle these changes. Third, focus on skills development to help workers move into new or growing areas, such as shifting from routine tasks to higher-value work. Finally, update reporting metrics so boards can see how much of the company’s wages relate to jobs threatened by automation.
MIT’s researchers warn that the chance to treat AI as a future problem is closing fast. For Canadian HR leaders, this window is even smaller due to competition with U.S. firms and a strong focus on social responsibility at home.
Ultimately, the research shows AI can already do a significant part of the work done in Canada today. How smoothly the country manages the transition depends on choices made now — before any big job cuts hit the headlines. The path forward will either be a managed change or a series of avoidable disruptions, led largely by how companies and their HR teams respond today.