Federal meteorologists have issued a warning about a potentially busy Atlantic hurricane season in 2025. They expect a higher chance of frequent and intense storms this year.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced that there is a 60% likelihood that storm activity will exceed the usual seasonal average. They predict between 13 and 19 named storms, with six to ten possibly becoming hurricanes. Out of these, up to five could reach major hurricane status.
Laura Grimm, the acting administrator of NOAA, shared this forecast during a press conference in Jefferson Parish, Louisiana. This event coincided with the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, a storm that caused significant devastation in the U.S. While she did not directly address recent funding cuts to climate science, Grimm assured the public that NOAA is prepared for the upcoming season.
Grimm emphasized the importance of weather prediction and protecting lives and property. She stated, “We are fully staffed at the hurricane center, and we definitely are ready to go.” She also highlighted improvements in storm forecasting, noting the accuracy of last year’s predictions. In 2024, Hurricanes Helene and Milton resulted in over $37 billion in insured damages, according to the global insurance firm Aon.
Despite the challenges posed by recent storms, the U.S. property insurance sector has shown strong performance, achieving its best underwriting results in over a decade. However, this positive trend may not last. Economic challenges and catastrophic events, such as the massive wildfires in California earlier this year, could impact profits in 2025. Those wildfires have already generated over $50 billion in insurance claims.
Severe weather has affected areas beyond the coasts, with the Midwest experiencing significant storms this spring. The Storm Prediction Center reported 883 tornadoes so far this year, which is about 35% above the seasonal average. Aon estimates that convective storms in the first quarter alone caused $10 billion in insured losses, with an additional $7 billion from a May outbreak.
Data shows that average annual insured losses from natural disasters have risen by 90% over the past decade, now exceeding $33 billion each year. Bill Clark, CEO of Demex, a reinsurance analytics firm, warned that this rising financial burden is making home insurance less affordable and available, especially in areas prone to disasters. He noted that reinsurance costs for severe storm losses are at a 20-year high, limiting insurers’ ability to manage their losses.
The increase in losses is largely due to more development in high-risk regions, where property values and the cost of possessions have soared. Insurers are now urging state and local governments to enforce stronger building codes and invest in better flood defenses and fire-resistant construction.
As the hurricane season approaches, all eyes will be on the Atlantic, and communities are urged to prepare for the possibility of severe weather ahead.