President Donald Trump said on Friday that he is considering a limited military strike on Iran. This announcement has left markets and insurers uneasy as the United States builds up its largest military presence in the Middle East in more than 20 years.
At a White House breakfast with U.S. governors, Trump acknowledged he was thinking about such strikes as a way to pressure Iran over its nuclear program. He mentioned that a decision could come within the next two weeks but also emphasized that talks with Iran remain a possibility.
Trump warned that any attack on Iran would likely be much more severe than the limited strikes the U.S. launched last June against Iranian nuclear sites. This raises concerns that even a small, targeted strike could escalate into a larger conflict.
The U.S. military has already deployed a significant force to the region. The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier group is in place, and the USS Gerald Ford is on its way. Dozens of planes, including advanced fighters like the F-16, F-22, and F-35, have been sent to the area. This build-up could support an extended air campaign rather than a single strike. Long-range bombers could also be launched from American bases or from locations like Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
Experts worry the biggest threat to the global economy would come if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted. This narrow waterway at the Persian Gulf’s entrance sees over 14 million barrels of oil and condensate pass daily—about a third of the world’s sea-borne oil exports.
Iran has often threatened to block or attack ships passing through the strait if it comes under attack. Satellite images show Iran reinforcing key military and nuclear sites, which could make any future strikes more difficult and lengthy.
For insurers, this growing tension means reassessing risks tied to war, shipping, and aviation. The recent U.S. military build-up is the biggest since the 2003 Iraq invasion, and insurance companies are already re-examining coverage policies. They’re considering worse-case scenarios like direct hits on energy infrastructure, missile attacks on Gulf states, and unrest in important markets.
Marine insurers are particularly concerned about tankers and cargo vessels going through Hormuz and nearby waters. A single incident could cause detentions or blockades, sending insurance premiums and deductibles soaring.
Airlines could face problems too. Possible airspace closures or other issues could affect flight routes, increasing risks for hull and liability insurance. Meanwhile, political risk and trade credit insurers are watching closely for new sanctions or asset freezes that could impact businesses connected to Iran and its neighbors.
Reinsurers are worried about the potential for widespread and connected losses across several insurance areas if conflict drags on or spreads further in the region.
For now, talks between the U.S. and Iran continue behind the scenes, with diplomacy still the goal. But with Trump openly considering strikes, and U.S. forces prepared for serious action, insurers and markets are bracing for the possibility that a long-standing crisis could rapidly worsen.