Sunny weather welcomed farmers and industry professionals this week at the Farm Progress Show in Illinois, the biggest farm event in the United States. But despite the pleasant skies, the mood among attendees was cautious. Low crop prices and ongoing trade tensions, especially with China, are making the future uncertain for American farmers.
Scott Metzger, who farms soybeans, corn, and wheat in central Ohio and traveled over 300 miles to attend, described the current market as “pretty nasty.” He and many others are holding back on buying expensive equipment like tractors and combines, even though manufacturers such as Deere & Co., CNH Industrial, and AGCO displayed their latest high-tech machines. Instead, farmers are sticking with their current gear for longer and focusing on smaller investments like parts and tires.
This year, the US is expecting record corn yields and strong soybean harvests, but a big question looms over where all this surplus will go. China, once the top buyer of American soybeans, has not signed any deals for shipments from this year’s harvest, which starts soon. The ongoing trade war and tariffs between the US and China have chilled this critical trade relationship, causing crop prices to drop and raising the cost of essential inputs like fertilizer.
The American Soybean Association says farmers are on the edge of a financial crisis if the trade dispute drags on. Economic trouble is also showing in rural communities, with worse credit conditions and rising bankruptcies, according to a Federal Reserve Bank report.
Manufacturers face their own challenges as tariffs on steel and aluminum push up production costs while farmers remain cautious shoppers. Deere is laying off workers but still plans to invest heavily in US manufacturing over the next decade. Gerrit Marx, CEO of CNH Industrial, suggested this year might be a low point for farm machinery sales, but he expects things could improve as farmers adjust to the changing landscape.
Some positive developments have come from the federal government. The Trump administration raised biofuel usage targets, supporting demand for corn and soybeans, and boosted crop insurance protections to help farmers manage risks. Yet, the biggest hope remains a deal with China. Eric Hansotia, CEO of AGCO, said unlocking that trade could open the market and ease pressure on growers.
As harvest season nears, farmers like Metzger face tight finances. With high input costs and uncertain markets, many are cautiously expecting what lies ahead. While the fields may be full of green crops, the real questions are what will grow, where those crops will go, and if farmers can afford to keep their operations running strong.