For the first time since 2019, more people are leaving American counties at high risk for floods than moving in. According to a recent report from Redfin, around 30,000 more residents left these areas than those who relocated there, marking a significant shift from pandemic years when many sought coastal and Sun Belt locations.
The study looked at 310 counties identified as having high flood risk by the climate risk firm First Street. Using population data from the Census Bureau covering July 2023 to July 2024, the report found that 132 of these counties experienced a net loss of residents, while 178 saw an inflow. However, overall, more people left than arrived.
The coastal regions felt the biggest impact. Miami-Dade County led the nation with a loss of 67,418 people, a steep rise from the previous year’s 50,637 outflow. Houston’s Harris County saw 31,165 residents move away, followed by Brooklyn’s Kings County with 28,158 departures. New Orleans’ Orleans Parish, where nearly every home is in a flood zone, lost 4,950 residents. In contrast, counties with low flood risks gained nearly 36,000 residents—the highest increase since 2019.
When asked why they left, Florida residents often mentioned climate concerns. Rising insurance costs, higher homeowners association fees, and special charges after events like the deadly Surfside condominium collapse have made living on the coast more expensive and stressful. Last year, Hurricane Helene caused $93 million in damage to Pinellas County, Florida, leading to its first population decline in years. Some displaced people moved to nearby counties with less flood risk, and others left Florida altogether.
International immigration has helped offset some of these losses. Miami-Dade County alone saw over 120,000 new arrivals from abroad, more than balancing the domestic departures. In fact, six of the ten flood-prone counties with the largest domestic outflows still had overall population gains thanks to international migrants.
However, this trend may change. Redfin’s chief economist, Daryl Fairweather, warns that stricter immigration enforcement under the current administration could reduce the number of immigrants moving into these areas. Many immigrants, who previously felt safe evacuating during storms, might now stay put for fear of detention.
Interestingly, counties still attracting people domestically tend to have slightly lower flood risks and more affordable housing. For example, those gaining residents have a median home price around $376,000, with 36% of homes in flood zones. Counties losing the most people have pricier homes, averaging over $437,000, and face a higher risk with 44% of homes in danger areas.
Flooding remains a serious problem for many communities. As the climate changes and severe weather events become more common, the real estate and population patterns in flood-prone areas are shifting. How these trends develop will depend on climate impacts, housing costs, and immigration policies going forward.