A series of US-led tariff agreements in 2025 is reshaping global trade, making political alignment with the United States a key concern for businesses operating internationally. This shift was highlighted in a new report from Willis, part of WTW, which reveals how tariffs are now closely tied to national security priorities and have become more than just a compliance issue.
The report, titled Mapping the new geopolitics of tariff deals, uses expert analysis and detailed maps to show how recent trade agreements often require countries to follow US export controls, secure supply chains, and enforce stricter rules around the origin of products and shipments. These rules aim to strengthen the Western bloc but also make it harder for companies to simply reroute supply chains without facing risks.
Notably, the new agreements have caused some countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, and Ecuador to align more closely with the West by adopting US export controls. Meanwhile, countries such as Brazil, India, and South Africa have stayed out of these deals, leaving their future alliances and market environments uncertain. Some agreements even include “poison pill” clauses, meaning countries could lose favorable trade terms quickly if political situations change.
So far, only China and Canada have responded strongly to these new tariffs. At the same time, countries are competing to secure the lowest tariff rates, which is already affecting where businesses invest and export. In Africa, Western influence seems to be fading as some nations turn toward Russia and other partners outside the Western alliance, which could present new challenges for companies working in these markets.
For insurers, brokers, and risk managers, this new reality means tariff-related risks need to be part of big-picture planning, not just day-to-day operations. Political risk and trade credit underwriting must now consider the chance of sudden changes in market access or penalties tied to these “poison pill” clauses. Marine and supply-chain insurers will face more difficulty as companies look for suppliers in countries with unclear political alignments. Some businesses might even turn to captive insurance or special risk transfers to protect against abrupt trade policy shifts.
Brokers and advisers should expand their support, helping clients prepare for different scenarios that could impact supply chains and market access. Willis suggests firms update their country risk maps and insurance programs to cover potential gaps from these political changes. They also recommend stress-testing supply chains and working on mitigation plans that include both insurance solutions and practical steps like diversifying suppliers or building inventory buffers.
Sam Wilkin, director of political risk analytics at Willis, summed it up: companies have adjusted well to changing tariff rates. Now, they need to handle the politics behind those tariffs. With national security and trade policy closely linked, tariffs have moved from being a simple compliance task to a strategic issue at the heart of business planning.
In short, 2025 marks a turning point where geopolitics and tariffs are inseparable. Businesses and risk teams must keep this in mind if they want to stay ahead in a world where trade deals depend as much on political loyalties as on economics.